Barcelona vs Real Madrid Predictions & Tips
Spanish LaLiga - Round 35
11.05.2025, Sun
Venue: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona) (55 926)
Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)
Probability of winning
Barcelona - Real Madrid (1X2) - Now - 49.2% - 23% - 27.7%
Initially - 51.3% - 23.5% - 25.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation - 52.1% - 23.1% - 24.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Facts
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Barcelona is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
Real is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 4.
Barcelona is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Real has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Barcelona may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Barcelona could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 38:35. (average 1.9:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Barcelona won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.5:2.3).
Short Preview
### Expert Preview: FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid - May 11, 2025
As the stage is set for yet another thrilling El Clásico, FC Barcelona will host arch-rivals Real Madrid at Camp Nou on May 11, 2025. With both teams arriving in decent form, the anticipation for this clash is palpable.
**Recent Form:**
FC Barcelona has managed to secure victories in 3 of their last 5 matches, showcasing a solid home performance and a return to form. Their attacking unit has been instigating most of the positive outcomes, presenting a formidable threat that Real Madrid will need to contend with. Meanwhile, Real Madrid has mirrored this success, also winning 3 of their last 5 fixtures. Their well-rounded squad depth and experience in pressure situations make them a challenging opponent.
**Strengths and Strategies:**
Barcelona’s strength lies in its possession-based playing style, characterized by swift ball movement and clever off-the-ball runs. The synergy between their attacking players, combined with the creativity from midfield, has led to a higher goal-scoring rate in recent matches. Defensively, however, they will need to tighten their structure to keep the potent Madrid attack at bay.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, boasts a robust counter-attacking strategy, with the capability to strike quickly and decisively. The experience of veterans mixed with the youthful energy of rising stars provides them with a balanced approach. Their ability to capitalize on defensive lapses will be crucial; they could exploit any momentary lapses in Barcelona's backline.
**Expectations:**
Bookmakers have tipped Barcelona as the favorites with odds at 1.88, reflecting a strong belief in their home advantage. Our prediction model echoes this sentiment, giving them a 52.1% chance of winning, while suggesting a 24.8% probability of an away victory for Madrid. The predicted final score of 2:1 suggests a competitive match, and with both teams hungry for points, we can expect an entertaining and fiercely contested encounter.
In summary, this El Clásico promises drama and tension as both clubs strive not just for bragging rights but for critical points in the LaLiga title race. Each side will look to impose their style, and fans can anticipate a high-quality football spectacle.
Outrights of Spanish LaLiga
Barcelona: 84.25%, Real Madrid: 15.65%
Extra Preview
As the dust settles on Barcelona’s heartbreaking exit in extra time of the UEFA Champions League semi-final, their attention swiftly turns back to domestic duties. The sole focus now becomes the La Liga title for Hansi Flick’s side, and with four a four-point gap to chasing El Clásico rivals Real Madrid, the importance of maintaining or extending that gap here cannot be overstated.
Victory would open the gap to seven points and mean that Barcelona will secure the title with one more victory from their final three games. Achieving that may be an expectation as the Blaugrana have had their rivals’ card marked this season, denying them in both the Super Cup and Copa del Rey finals, as well as securing the largest winning margin in a La Liga Clásico since 2022 with their 4-0 reverse victory, with those results making up Flick’s perfect record in this fixture (W3).
Looking to upset that record is departing Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti, who will leave the club following his final four games as the most decorated manager in the club’s glittering history. Failing to add to his 15 Real trophies in the recent cup-final Clásico, he at least maintained their chance to blow the title race wide open in this clash by returning to winning ways in league action last weekend.
Securing a fifth straight league win for the first time since May 2024 could be on the cards with Real having won three of their previous four La Liga Clásico’s on Barcelona soil, with all four of those matches seeing goals in both halves. Despite their strong recent record here, Los Blancos have struggled against the division’s top sides this term, as they’re yet to beat either Barça or Atletico Madrid in La Liga this season (D2, L1).
Players to watch: Barcelona are boosted by the return of La Liga top scorer Robert Lewandowski (G25), who has 15 direct goal contributions in 17 previous matches against Real Madrid (G11, A4), including three goals this season. Just one behind the Pole in the La Liga scoring charts, Kylian Mbappé (G24) has netted eight times in seven career meetings against Barcelona, including two this season.
Hot stat: None of Ancelotti’s 19 El Clásico’s as Madrid boss ended level (W9, L10), with each of the last five producing at least four goals.
Written by Matthew Billon
Barcelona - Real Madrid Predictions
Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 13 - 54.2%). Real will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 34.3% – 74.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 1 - 50%). Real (votes: 1 - 50%).
Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:1
More - Barcelona - Real Madrid on live2sport.com
Where to Watch on TV:
Afghanistan - Asr TV, Meraj Sport, Solh Sports 1
Africa - CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 5, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania - SuperSport 1, SuperSport 2
Andorra - beIN Sports 1
Angola - Z Sport La Liga
Argentina - Disney+, ESPN
Armenia - Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia - beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia - beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria - DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan - Setanta Sports 2
Belgium - DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Arena Premium 3
Brazil - Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria - Max Sport 4
Canada - RDS App, RDS Info, TSN 3, TSN+
Chile - Disney+
China - Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia - Disney+, ESPN
Croatia - Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cuba - Tele Rebelde
Cyprus - Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic - Nova Sport 4
Denmark - TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe - Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland - MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France - beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia - Setanta Sports 2, Silk Universal
Germany - DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece - Nova Sports 1
Haiti - Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong - M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary - Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India - GXR World
Indonesia - beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Iran - IRIB Varzesh, Persiana Sports
Ireland - Shabake 3
Israel - ONE Sport
Italy - DAZN Italia
Japan - DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan - Setanta Sports 2
Kenya - Gotv
Kosovo - ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan - Setanta Sports 2
Laos - beIN Connect
Macao - Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Madagascar - UpTV
Malaysia - beIN Connect
MaldivesI - CE Plus, Medianet
Malta - GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico - Sky Sport
Moldova - Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique - Startimes Mania
Netherlands - Ziggo Sport
New Zealand - beIN Connect, TVWan
Nigeria - SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America - Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
Norway - TV2 Play
Peru - Disney+, ESPN
Philippines - beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland - CANAL+ Sport, Eleven Sports 1
Portugal - DAZN 1
Romania - Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia - MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia - Arena Premium 1
Slovakia - Voyo
Slovenia - Arena Sport 1
South Africa - SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America - ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea - Coupang Play
Spain - DAZN Espana, LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga TV 2, M+ LaLiga TV
Sweden - TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland - Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Taiwan - DAZN
Tajikistan - Setanta Sports 2, Varzish Sport
Tanzania - Azam Sports 4, TV3 Tanzania
Thailand - beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey - Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan - Setanta Sports 2
Ukrain - eMEGOGO Futbol 1
United Arab Emirates - Neto
United Kingdom - LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay - Disney+
USA - ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN USA, ESPN+
Uzbekistan - Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela - Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam - SCTV 22, SCTV Online